Weekly Market Insight: December Week 1

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Market Updates

02 Dec 2024

Headline News

- Bitcoin price decreased by 0.88% last week, retraced to the level near $91,000. On-chain data indicated that the majority addresses that realised profit were long-term holders, particularly addresses that accumulated BTC from 2022 and 2023. Bitcoin ETF also experienced $138.07 million net outflow during the same period. Despite that, the crypto Fear & Gear index remained above 70.
- Looking ahead, December could potentially be the month when Bitcoin reaches the highly anticipated $100,000 milestone. Historically, in previous halving years such as 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin posted gains of 30.8% and 46.92%, respectively, in December. This historical precedent offers hope for similarly strong performance this year.

Macro-Outlook

- The FOMC minutes released last week indicated the future rate cuts to be gradual. The participants were uncertain on the level of the neutral rate of interest, but remain confident the inflation is on the path to 2% and the source of inflation is not from wages. The market increased the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December from 50.9% to 67.1%.
- The U.S. Durable goods orders in October increased by 0.2%, below expectation of 0.5%. The 2nd estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP was 2.8%, matched with expectation. The core PCE in October increased by 0.3% month-over-month, also within market estimation. The PCE prices rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, aligning with expectations. Personal income in October increased by 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. Personal spending in October increased by 0.4%, also slightly higher than expectation of 0.3%.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Monday, December 2, 11:00pm: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November
- Tuesday, December 3, 11:00pm: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings in October
- Wednesday, December 4, 11:00pm: U.S. ISM Service PMI in November
- Thursday, December 5, 2:45am: Jerome Powell Speech at the New York Times DealBook Summit
- Friday, December 6, 9:30pm: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in November
- Friday, December 6, 11:00pm: Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment in December

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview

- MicroStrategy brought another 55,500 BTC, holding 386,700 BTC in total. MARA also purchased an additional 703 BTC, bringing the total to 6,474 BTC.
- WisdomTree filed for the XRP ETF application in Delaware.
- Valour launched DOGE ETP on Sweden's Spotlight Stock Market.
- 21Shares launched 4 additional ETPs including RNDR, PYTH, ONDO and NEAR on Euronext Amsterdam and Paris.
- The U.S. Court ruled OFAC exceeded its authority in sanctioning Tornado Cash.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

- Ripple announced onboarding tokenised money market fund with Archax on XRP Ledger.
- Movement Labs announced integration with Celestia, enabling Move chains to post blob data to Celestia. Movement also introduced MOVE token as the staking collateral and gas token for its Layer-2. 50% is allocated to ecosystem, community and initial claims.
- Supra, a multiVM Layer-1, launched phase 1 mainnet with EVM and MoveVM. SVM and CosmWasm are coming soon.
- Sonic launched Blaze, testnet 2.0. The current time to finality is about 840ms.

Dapps

- Hyperliquid launched HYPE token with 31% allocated for initial airdrop and 38.89% for future emissions and rewards. The token will be used for the staking collateral and gas token for HyperBFT. HYPE token is priced slightly below $10 billion in FDV and the platform experienced record highs in open interest, number of trades, daily new users and daily inflow.
- Hyperlane launched Superlane with Velodrome Finance, an interoperability layer that enables permissionless cross-chain solution to Optimism Superchain.
- EtherVista launched Etherfun on Base, fees generated on the network will be used for VISTA buyback and burn.
- Pendle launched on Base, starting with cbETH and BTC assets.
- 1inch launched Fusion+ for all users, enabling intent-based cross-chain token swap.
- Bons(ai) launched an on-chain agent platform that agents created can trade, connect, and evolve via prompt-based learning. These agents track social trends, identify tokens, execute trades, and create memecoins.
- Justin Sun invested $30 million in World Liberty Financial, becoming the largest investor on the platform.
- Liquity launched V2 on testnet. V2 or BOLD features user-set interest rate, native stablecoin yield, multi-collateral support and real-yield to LQTY stakers.
- After Binance announced the delist of REN, the dark pool protocol tweeted its v2 is coming.
- Flashbot introduced BuiderNet, a decentralised block building network for Ethereum that runs on TEEs and shares MEV & gas fees with users.
- Elixir's deUSD (DeFi version of BUIDL fund) announced Curve as the primary liquidity hub.
- Clanker, a token launcher via Farcaster post, announced a 40% fee share with users who created the token. The platform also created ANON, the token previously purchased by Vitalik, which is used to post anonymous posts in Farcaster. The team is expected to launch Anonfun, enabling users to anonymously create tokens via both protocols' features.
- Helium passed HIP-138, simplifying the Helium ecosystem by phasing out IOT and MOBILE tokens, rewarding all participants directly in HNT.

Upcoming Alpha and Governance

- Particle Network, a chain abstraction network, is expected to launch on-chain trading on December 3.
- Jupiter completed the first Jupuary vote with 58% voters favor with the baseline plan. However, the team is seeking a 70% supermajority on this proposal. There will be a second vote expected this week.
- Kaia announced Mini Dapps on LINE will be launched in January 2025. The Dapp Portal SDK is expected to launch in December 2024.
- Farcaster announced Frames v2 with full-screen application, browser-like rendering, onchain transaction request and overall better user experience. More features are expected to be launched this week and a full stable release is expected in Q1 2025.
- Polkadot 2.0 with Async Backing (faster block production), Agile Coretime (optimisze validator resources) and Elastic Scaling (on-demand network capacity) is expected in Q1 2025.
- TON introduced tgBTC to the TON network. The token is currently on testnet and expected to launch on the mainnet in Q2 2025.
- GMX proposed to increase buyback and distribution from 27% to 90%.
- Berachain foundation proposed a friendly fork of Morpho Blue.
- Instadapp proposed to utilise 5% of INST total supply to establish a protocol-owned liquidity pool.
- Synthetix proposed acquiring TLX as part of the strategy to launch the "Synthetix Vaults" series product.
- Andre Cronje, the Sonic co-founder, teased launching a "real" AMM (or Solidly v2) that is formulated to handle stablecoins, volatile pairs and closely correlated volatile assets.

Token Unlock

- SUI token unlocked on December 3rd, amount representing 2.87% of the token supply.
- JTO token unlocked on December 7th, amount representing 103.9% of the token supply.
- IO token unlocked on December 11th, amount representing 2.88% of the token supply.
- APT token unlocked on December 12th, amount representing 2.11% of the token supply.
- STRK token unlocked on December 15th, amount representing 2.84% of the token supply.
- ARB token unlocked on December 16th, amount representing 2.26% of the token supply.
- APE token unlocked on December 17th, amount representing 2.16% of the token supply.

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